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Supply Chain Under the Catastrophe

Dr. Canan Gunes Corlu—Associate Professor at Boston University—discusses the growing importance of supply chain resilience in the face of global disruptions. From natural disasters to digital transformation, she shares insights from her recent research and keynote talk at the Decision Science Alliance Summer Conference in Valencia.

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Matteo Panero: Hi Canan, thank you for accepting this interview. To start, could you introduce yourself and share a bit about your academic and professional background?

Canan Gunes Corlu: Sure, my name is Canan Gunes Corlu, and I am currently an associate professor in the Administrative Sciences department of Metropolitan College at Boston University. I received my PhD in operations management from the Tepper School of Business at Carnegie Mellon University in 2010. Before joining Boston University in 2012, I was an assistant professor in the Industrial Engineering department at Bilkent University in Turkey. My areas of expertise are operations management and supply chain management, where I’ve been teaching and conducting research for quite some time now.

Matteo Panero: What motivated you to participate in the International Summer Conference in Valencia, organized by the Decision Science Alliance (DSA), and what were your key takeaways from the event?

Canan Gunes Corlu: Several things motivated me to participate. First, some of my co-authors were part of the organizing committee, which was already an incentive. I was also invited as a keynote speaker, and I had the opportunity to lead one of the tracks during the conference. Another factor was the theme of the conference: “Empowering Human Decision Making in a Robotics and Data-Driven World.” I thought it was very timely and would attract excellent speakers from around the globe, which it did.

The main takeaways for me were that it was wonderful to see how comprehensive and interdisciplinary decision sciences is as a field. We heard from various sub-disciplines, and it was also a fantastic networking opportunity where I met many new people and made new connections.

Matteo Panero: Moving on to your paper, which focuses on supply chain risks during catastrophic events, why do you believe it’s crucial for companies to start paying more attention to these risks?  

Canan Gunes Corlu: Catastrophic events, particularly natural disasters, were once rare, but unfortunately, we are seeing them more frequently. A recent example is Hurricane Helen in Florida, followed by Hurricane Milton just a few weeks later. These events have devastating consequences for companies—they can completely halt supply chain operations, leading to billions of dollars in damage, and in some cases, pushing companies toward bankruptcy. We have unfortunate examples of this from the past. For these reasons, companies need to think about such events and make plans to mitigate the risks associated with them.

Matteo Panero: What are some early signs that companies should look for to identify potential vulnerabilities in their supply chain?

Canan Gunes Corlu: First, it’s essential to map out the supply chain and identify vulnerabilities. Sometimes companies aren’t fully aware of the links in their supply chain and how they might be affected by disruptive events. For instance, a company could be located in a stable country but sourcing supplies from a region that is highly vulnerable to natural disasters. Mapping out the supply chain helps highlight these vulnerabilities, and companies can then make plans to address what would happen if a disaster struck in that particular region.

Matteo Panero: Your paper also discusses the strategy of adding backup stocking locations to manage supply chain risks. What are the benefits of this approach, and how can businesses determine if it’s the right choice for them?

Canan Gunes Corlu: The idea is that companies can have two stocking locations: a primary and a secondary one. If the primary location is hit by a disaster—whether man-made or natural—the company could lose part or all of its inventory. In that case, it would not be able to supply the market, which directly impacts both the company’s bottom line and its customers.

Having a backup location allows the company to transfer stock from that backup to the primary location, ensuring customer demand is met. This is a risk mitigation strategy that some companies already use. 

Matteo Panero: Could this model also be applied to smaller businesses, or is it more suitable for larger companies?

Canan Gunes Corlu: It’s relevant for any company, big or small, that operates a supply chain. The model is applicable regardless of company size.

Matteo Panero: With the rise of global disruptions, how do you see the strategies discussed in your paper helping companies become more resilient and better prepared for future crises?

Canan Gunes Corlu: One common risk mitigation strategy is holding inventory. Our study helps companies determine when holding inventory at an alternative location is desirable. Having only one location to store inventory is like putting all your eggs in one basket, which we know is not the best approach. Having a second location makes the company more resilient and enables it to continue operations even when a disaster strikes. Using our model, companies can figure out how much inventory they should keep in their primary and secondary locations to mitigate catastrophic risks and improve resilience.

Matteo Panero: Speaking of the practical impact of your research, what influence do you hope your work will have on the business world?

Canan Gunes Corlu: Risk mitigation is a hot topic in business right now. If companies do not have a secondary location to store their inventory, I hope that our work will convince them to consider it as a strategy and help them decide if they need such a location.

Matteo Panero: Are there specific industries or sectors that you believe could benefit the most from applying the concepts in your paper?

Canan Gunes Corlu: Any company that holds inventory in its supply chain could benefit, regardless of industry. This work is applicable to companies both big and small. It’s not limited to any specific sector.

Matteo Panero: Have you identified any companies or projects where you see potential collaboration based on your research?

Canan Gunes Corlu: Not a specific one, but I was motivated by some of the news articles I read, where companies lost their inventory because they only had one storage location. Right now, I don’t have a particular company in mind, but I believe any company could start using this model.

Matteo Panero: What type of organizations or industries would you be interested in collaborating with based on your research?

Canan Gunes Corlu: Industries like pharmaceuticals, agriculture, and manufacturing come to mind. These sectors could greatly benefit from the strategies discussed in our paper.

Matteo Panero: Are you considering any future developments or new research directions based on this work?

Canan Gunes Corlu: Yes, there are several ways to extend this research. Our current model is a basic setup, so there is room to explore more complex scenarios. For instance, in the paper, we consider only two stocking locations, but future research could explore multiple locations with cross-location dependencies. If one location is hit by a disaster, there could be a chance that another nearby location might also be affected. How should companies then store inventory across these locations?

Another extension could look at dynamic inventory relocation. Nowadays, we often know when a disaster is coming, even if it’s just a few days in advance. Companies might have time to prepare by relocating their inventory dynamically to avoid losses. This is an interesting research question to explore. Lastly, some disasters cause changes in customer demand patterns, which could also be an interesting area for further study.

Matteo Panero (follow-up): In addition to the risks you’ve discussed, are there any other decision science areas you are aiming to explore in the future?

Canan Gunes Corlu: Currently, I have been working on digital twins for supply chains. With recent technological advances, digital twins have become an essential concept for companies toward their path to digitalization. My research with Dr. Bahar Biller (SAS Institute, Inc) and Dr. Stephan Biller (Purdue University) aims to equip companies with the knowledge on the benefits of digital twins and their implementation.  

Matteo Panero: How do you see the future of decision science over the next five to ten years, especially in the context of Industry 4.0 and automation?

Canan Gunes Corlu: That’s a great question. I think we’re already seeing some of this happening, but over the next five to ten years, decision science will increasingly leverage AI tools and machine learning algorithms, leading to better-informed decisions. I also anticipate growing interest in human-AI collaboration, which was a theme at the conference. We’ll likely see decision science open up to disciplines like cognitive science and psychology to better understand and enhance human-AI collaboration.

Matteo Panero: Thank you so much for your time, Canan. It was a pleasure to meet you, and I hope to see you again at the next summer conference for decision science.